In this mailbag: Virginia Zakas offers insights on the injuries impacting Jonathan Taylor, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Saints, Saints and more Saints!
Inside Injuries was founded by an orthopedic radiologist, Dr. Anand Lalaji (aka Dr. A), who contributes to all of the injury writeups. Dr. A put together a team of doctors and data scientists to create an algorithm to evaluate the impact that injuries have on a player. This algorithm powers all of Inside Injuries’ analysis and determines each player’s Injury Risk, Health Performance Factor (the level a player is expected to perform at if they return too soon, for example) and Optimal Recovery Time. This information is based on years of medical experience and historical injury research and has proven to be incredibly accurate in determining how injuries will impact a player’s performance and risk of future injuries.
Advertisement
A quick description of terms from our injury algorithm:
- IRC = Injury Risk Category (Low, Elevated, High) — the overall likelihood a player will get injured
- HPF = Health Performance Factor (Peak, Above Average, Below Average, Poor) — our metric to predict player performance
- ORT = Optimal Recovery Time — the amount of time a player needs to fully recover from an injury (not the same as how much time they will actually miss)
How long should we expect Jonathan Taylor to be out? — Joseph S.
I’m expecting Jonathan Taylor to return in Week 6. Then it will take a few more weeks for him to get back to full strength (our algorithm has given him a four-week Optimal Recovery Time), but I’m not expecting this to be a long-term absence. With the Thursday night game, Taylor just didn’t have enough time to get the swelling and pain down so he could try to go.
Taylor underwent an MRI on the ankle, which didn’t show any damage. Often a mild sprain doesn’t show up on the MRI because ligament damage is minimal. I still believe there’s a mild high ankle injury here, but not nearly as concerning as most high ankle sprains. Our projections show that Taylor’s injury numbers will improve ahead of Week 6 — he will be right on the edge of an Elevated and High Injury Risk and will come with a Below Average HPF.
Should I keep Cordarrelle Patterson? — Sam K.
I wouldn’t drop him yet, but if we learn more about his exact injury, it might be time. Patterson was active in Week 4, rushing nine times for 38 yards and a touchdown, but he wasn’t seen much in the second half. On Monday morning the team announced that Patterson was undergoing a procedure on his knee and would be placed on IR. That means he is going to miss at least four games.
The Falcons didn’t release any additional information on Patterson’s exact injury. This was likely a scope or clean-up procedure, but depending on the damage the recovery time can vary anywhere from 4-12 weeks. More often than not, 4-8 weeks is a realistic timeline to return. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith said that he expects Patterson to return this year and they “expect him back sooner rather than later.” Based on what we know so far, the Inside Injuries algorithm has given him an eight-week Optimal Recovery Time, so he could have some value late in the season.
Advertisement
Do I need to continue to worry about Alvin Kamara ? He’s dragging my team down as a Round 2 bust — David M.
Alvin Kamara’s rib cartilage fracture isn’t going to be fully healed yet, but his pain should have improved significantly after sitting in Week 4. Kamara was hurt in the first game of the season and missed Week 2. He returned in Week 3 but was clearly bothered by the injury, forcing him to miss time again. Now Kamara has had a month to get closer to full strength and should be feeling much better.
When asked about the injury, Kamara said, “There’s nothing really you can do for it. It’s one of those things you’ve got to kind of be easy with and one morning you wake up and it’s feeling terrible, the next morning you wake up and it’s feeling better. I kind of try to stay on the rehab and try to do everything I can. Obviously there’s not too much I can do, but obviously I try to do everything I can to make it feel good and just promote and stimulate the healing.”
Kamara is right — this is a very frustrating injury that just needs time. There isn’t really any rehab or treatment that helps significantly. The only real option is to wear a flak jacket and/or receive an injection before the game to help manage the pain. Kamara still comes with a High Injury Risk, but that’s also due to his injury history.
Does Michael Thomas have some form of turf toe? — Cody M.
Michael Thomas picked up a toe injury in Week 3 and missed the Saints’ Week 4 loss in London. The injury is to the foot opposite the ankle he injured in 2020 and then had multiple surgeries on. He started off this week with a DNP, which isn’t a great sign for his Week 5 availability.
While the Saints haven’t provided an exact diagnosis, there is a good chance this is a case of turf toe. Our algorithm is counting it as a grade 1 sprain. This basically means the ligaments at the base of the big toe are damaged. It can be a tough injury to overcome, especially for wide receivers who are continuously pushing off of the foot to generate power and speed. Even a mild case can take 3-4 weeks to fully heal. It’s incredibly easy to aggravate, which can lengthen the recovery time. Another possible diagnosis is a midfoot sprain, as the Saints recently reported this as a foot injury, not toe. If so this injury comes with a similar outlook. Even a mild midfoot sprain is slow to heal and can significantly hamper production.
Advertisement
Michael Thomas was already in the High Risk category, and now that number has jumped to 37%. His HPF (Health Performance Factor — predicted performance based on health) is Below Average, so don’t expect the same Michael Thomas we saw early in the season if he does suit up.
How long will it take for Jameis Winston to heal from his back injury? — Timothy C.
James Winston was diagnosed with four back fractures. These are likely transverse process fractures, which can be very painful but aren’t important for function or structure. Winston suffered the injury in Week 1, almost a month ago, and should be close to fully healed. Going forward, I’m no longer concerned about how his back will affect his performance, but he remains pretty banged up.
Winston is also battling an ankle sprain and a hip injury on top of recovering from the torn ACL and MCL he suffered last season. That’s a lot of problems for his body to be dealing with. It hasn’t even been a year since he underwent knee surgery, so the Saints are likely being cautious with him. It’s a long season, and given all of his injuries, it’s best to sit him now so he can actually get healthy and perform at a high level later in the year. Winston is likely to miss Week 5 but could be ready to return in Week 6.
What are the chances, based on the severity of the particular injury, that Daniel Jones plays Sunday in London? — Sal M.
Daniel Jones is trending towards playing this week, but he won’t be 100%. Jones’ mechanism of injury is in line with a mild high ankle sprain. This injury comes with a three-week Optimal Recovery Time according to our algorithm. Heading into Week 5, Jones comes with an Elevated Injury Risk (22%) and a Below Average HPF (46%). High ankle sprains affect mobility, especially lateral movements. That means Jones won’t be very effective if he does suit up. I wouldn’t play him in any fantasy lineups this weekend.
With Javonte Williams now out for the season with an ACL tear plus other injuries, what are his long-term recovery prospects, especially for those who have him on their dynasty rosters? — Joon W.
Williams was one of the most exciting young running backs in the game, but his knee injury is going to end his 2022 season and affect him into 2023. Williams could be ready to go at the start of next season, but he suffered a multi-ligament knee injury. An MRI confirmed a torn ACL and LCL. This combo will make his recovery slower and more complicated. A majority of RBs and WRs who return from a torn ACL the following season see a dip in production in Year 1 and then an improvement in Year 2, with many returning to their pre-injury form. When multiple structures in the knee are damaged it becomes less likely that the player will return to their previous level of play. That makes Williams a risky guy to have on your dynasty roster — you’ll have to be playing the long game with him as he is unlikely to be a Top 10 RB next season, especially in the first half of the year.
(Top photo: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports)
ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57km9tbnBiZ3xzfJFrZmpoX2WDcLLAp6uaq6lis7C705uYpaRdnrurwdGinKxlpJbGrbvRZqKapZGnrm68wK2rnqqjpLtw